Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 1.972393e-01 0.235137 0.275781 0.322338 0.373923 0.429070 0.492220
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1.389406e-01 0.187816 0.244418 0.313706 0.395146 0.486808 0.596737
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1.035818e-01 0.158537 0.226996 0.315891 0.425694 0.554473 0.714495
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.455094e-02 0.130607 0.205954 0.309613 0.443699 0.606842 0.815860
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.111821e-02 0.104471 0.182372 0.296046 0.449818 0.643437 0.898460
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.917713e-02 0.092142 0.175247 0.302493 0.480753 0.711095 1.020733
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.733301e-02 0.076421 0.160202 0.295469 0.492104 0.753034 1.111034
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.227350e-02 0.071405 0.160740 0.310520 0.533848 0.835518 1.255009
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.616876e-02 0.062073 0.152410 0.310816 0.554000 0.889130 1.362131
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.164594e-02 0.054311 0.145294 0.311841 0.574538 0.943187 1.470452
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.944337e-03 0.049879 0.143439 0.320860 0.606812 1.013826 1.601958
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.973744e-03 0.046516 0.143001 0.331892 0.642164 1.089256 1.740996
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.259779e-03 0.043078 0.142078 0.342356 0.677669 1.166761 1.885891
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.202925e-03 0.036468 0.133005 0.337416 0.688590 1.209165 1.983293
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.108435e-03 0.032706 0.129554 0.342207 0.714901 1.274209 2.113031
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.105037e-03 0.027502 0.121345 0.337087 0.724571 1.314773 2.208965
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.016550e-04 0.021631 0.109602 0.323607 0.719327 1.332586 2.272627
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.040032e-04 0.019723 0.108367 0.331004 0.749303 1.403619 2.412863
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.319116e-05 0.016038 0.100584 0.323870 0.753770 1.435758 2.497534
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.021950e-05 0.015718 0.103621 0.340083 0.799350 1.531559 2.675256
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 9.724584e-07 0.013557 0.099664 0.340525 0.816948 1.584354 2.791104
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.011731 0.096224 0.341693 0.835674 1.639028 2.910191
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 NaN 0.010923 0.096492 0.351331 0.869889 1.718376 3.066248